Agent-based models in municipal administration

The article raises the issue concerning the tools and scientific validity of development of planning and forecasting documents at the municipal level. The need for such tools is due to the dependence of socio-economic development of the municipality on the quality of strategic planning, and it is also relevant with regard to current legislation, particularly Federal Law “On strategic planning in the Russian Federation” adopted by the State Duma in 2014. The study develops the idea of researchers from CEMI RAS on the feasibility of using agent-based models as a tool for planning the development of territories. A fundamental difference between the present work and previous publications devoted to this topic lies in the goal of the present study, which is not to review existing models and describe examples, since all this can be found in many articles, but to analyze and systematize accumulated research and practical experience in the development of agent-based models designed for the purposes of municipal management. In particular, scientific novelty of the research consists in the author’s classification of agent-based models in municipal administration based on four main criteria: the scope, the goal of application, the way of their including in the model of authorities, and the way of specifying control actions in the model. Thus, according to the sphere of their application the author specifies agent-based models addressing spatial planning, budget planning, tax policy, environmental protection, transport services, availability of kinder-gartens, schools, health care and other issues in accordance with the powers of municipal authorities. According to the purpose of application the author defines agent-based models designed to forecast risks of socio-economic development, test management actions, assess the efficiency of the policy carried out, and train in decision making skills. According to the way of inclusion in the model of authorities the author highlights agent-based models that contain them in explicit and implicit form; and according to the means of setting control actions the author distinguishes models in which the behavior of the authorities is determined endogenously, partly endogenously, and exogenously. The article also describes development stages of agent-based models for the purpose of formation of a scientifically substantiated local socio-economic policy, as well as the minimum required composition of the team of developers; it justifies the prospects and feasibility of using agent-based modeling in municipal administration, considers the views of leading Russian and international experts regarding the need for the new tools, and gives numerous arguments in favor of its application.