Agrifood sustainability: factors, risks, prospects

In the context of increasing global economic instability and growing turbulence in foreign economic relations, the issue of food security is acquiring strategic significance for national development. Disruptions in global resource and food markets require new approaches to organizing sustainable agricultural production capable of offsetting external risks and adapting to a changing environment. The objective of this study is to develop a theoretical and methodological foundation for the sustainable functioning of the agricultural sector as a system-forming element of the country's food security. The methodological framework for the study includes the use of a systems approach, structural and functional analysis, multi-criteria assessment methods, and indicative modeling. These tools allowed for a comprehensive examination of the multi-level agricultural system, distinguishing between the federal, regional, and local levels of governance. The scientific innovation lies in the integration of environmental, climatic, anthropogenic, and socioeconomic indicators into a unified model for assessing the sustainability of agricultural producers. This approach takes into account territorial specifics, production specialization, human resource potential, and the degree of exposure to external and internal risk factors. The study's results include a developed classification of sustainability criteria linked to management levels and a system of indicators that enable the assessment of the current state of the agricultural sector, the identification of potential threats, and the forecasting of long-term developments. The resulting provisions have high practical significance. Their implementation contributes to the improvement of strategic and programmatic measures in food policy, increasing the adaptability of agriculture to environmental fluctuations, and minimizing threats to national agricultural and food security and the sustainable development of the country's agricultural sector.