Agro-industrial complex in modern conditions: orientation to import substitution and export

The relevance of the topic lies in the need to assess the prospects for the development of the agricultural complex in the context of sanctions. In modern conditions, agro-industrial exports have a significant weight in Russian foreign trade and have a significant impact on the development of agriculture and food security of the country. In this regard, the purpose of the work is a systematic analysis of key factors in the development of the industry, allowing to maintain the dynamics of the main indicators of agricultural production. As the study showed, Russian agriculture has been faced with the problem of exhausting reserves for the growth of domestic consumption for several years now. The consumption of basic foodstuffs has demonstrated stability over the past five years, which puts the growth of agricultural production at risk. At first glance, the logical way out seems to be to reduce the share of imports in consumption, and use this process as a driver of agricultural development. However, in most areas this reserve has already been exhausted. Partly due to the counter-sanctions spurt since 2014-2015. In the course of the work, two promising areas for further development of agriculture were identified: the continuation of import substitution processes and the increase in production due to an increase in the export component. Among the potential growth points of the agro-industrial complex, gardening, production of meat, vegetables, sugar and sugar beet, commercial production of cake, pulp and other by-products, and waste from the food industry should be highlighted. Significant prospects exist in the export of products from the flour milling and confectionery industries, where there is a high dynamics of exports.