Updating Methodological Approaches to Scenario Modelling of Socio-Economic Development of Small Towns

This article examines the theoretical foundations and applied aspects of scenario modeling for the socioeconomic development of small cities. It provides an overview of existing approaches to scenario development and proposes a typology of key indicators that allow for a comprehensive assessment of the potential and sustainability of development. The aim of the study is to conduct a score-rating assessment of the socioeconomic development of small towns and identify the factors determining their sustainability, as well as to construct scenarios for further development within the framework of the Spatial Development Strategy. The research methodology includes a comparative-analytical method used to assess the socio-economic development of territories and build their rating; a systematic approach and the method of scientific abstraction and synthesis, which are used to build scenario modeling of territorial development. Particular attention is paid to the adaptation of scenario models to regional and municipal conditions, the involvement of local communities in strategic planning, and institutional support. Based on the conducted analysis, a scenario-building methodology tailored to the specific needs of small Russian cities is proposed. Unlike traditional approaches, this methodology allows for a more accurate consideration of local characteristics, such as demographic trends, economic structure, and social dynamics, thereby facilitating more flexible and effective development planning for these territories. The article’s conclusions are intended for application in territorial planning, project management, and the development of municipal development strategies.