American intelligence looks into the future (analytical review)

The author writes about the growing demand for the method of strategic forecasting. The article details the provisions of the 6th analytical report (226 pages) of the US LDCs «Global Trends: Paradoxes of Progress», which had been prepared for the last four years. Analysts of the LDCs have set an ambitious task to analyze the forces and alternatives that will shape the formation of the world in the near future. Three scenarios are presented, as variants of manifestation of various alternatives and ways of their development over the next several decades. Five-year forecasts for each region of the world are given, and the main global tendencies of the future are considered in the context of the paradox of the development of the modern world. The next five years will be marked by increased tension both within and among countries, global growth will slow down, the terrorist threat will expand, and the era of America's domination and the entire postwar world order will come to the end. At the same time, there will be additional opportunities for China and Russia. The paradox of progress means that the same trends that create risks in the near future can create opportunities for obtaining better results in the long term. In conclusion, the author analyzes the report in terms of objectivity, professionalism of experts, etc., emphasizing that the public analytical development of US intelligence is an integral opinion of the US leadership on a wide range of foreign and domestic policies.