Analysis of generalized models of radiogenic risk. Part 1. ICRP models

The article presents analysis of models for assessment of radiation associated risks given in the ICRP Recommendations 2007, mathematical formula that generalizes ICRP models, and constants value for cancers located in different sites of the body. The authors evaluated appropriateness of cancer risk models given in ICRP 103 publication with conformity background criterion, which allows estimating consistency of models for baseline morbidity and mortality and matching calculated and actual data in a certain group. We found some logical inconsistencies from analysis of ICRP models. For example, summing up models related to a specific cancer did not give the model for calculating risk of solid cancer for morbidity and mortality. According to our calculations the number of deaths from a radiation related cancer of a specific location exceeded the number of the cancers detected during the life of the cohort members. ICRP models for certain cancer locations differ from models of D. Preston and his co-authors fitted to the LSS cohort and do not conform to them. Found weak points of ICRP models gave evidence of necessity for more careful justification of models for calculation of radiation risks and tissue weighting factor.