Analysis of promising areas of regional development on the example of the Krasnodar Territory

The Krasnodar Territory has long been associated with grain, wine and beaches, but in the 2020s the region is rapidly breaking the stereotype of an «agrarian and resort appendage». The purpose of the study is to identify areas that can transform the region’s economy into the value added league, rather than the «raw material feat of yesterday». The methodological framework consisted of statistical analysis of macro- and meso-indicators (2015-2024), content analysis of regulations, as well as 42 semi-structured interviews with entrepreneurs and officials. The localization index, the GEM profile of entrepreneurial activity, and scenario modeling up to 2035 were used as tools. The results demonstrate a shift in the growth point: from the monotermal agro–industrial complex to the convergence of agrotechnology, biotechnology, Novorossiysk port logistics, year-round medical tourism and the creative IT segment. Additional drivers are the wind farms of the Taman Peninsula and wine and gastronomic brands with PDO protection, reinforcing the territorial identity. The theoretical novelty lies in the refined model of the «multifunctional southern region»; the practical one is in the roadmap of investment steps integrated into the Strategy of socio-economic Development of the region until 2035. The conclusions are addressed to government authorities, business associations and investors; the risks are also identified – infrastructural bottlenecks and personnel shortages. Additionally, the study offers a KPI system synchronized with the federal Green Energy project, which facilitates the inclusion of results in budget programs. Triangulation of quantitative data with 15 focus groups and Delphi surveys increases the reliability of conclusions and provides a comprehensive look at the possibilities of diversification. The resulting model can become a prototype for other regions with similar initial conditions, striving for carbon-neutral growth and digitalization. Finally, a matrix of measures to reduce institutional barriers has been developed, providing for accelerated procedures for strategic investors, which makes the proposed roadmap practical in the medium term.