Seasonality analysis of potential tourist demand in the region based on search queries

Restrictions imposed by Western countries on Russians' travel abroad (closure of airspace, weakening of the Russian aviation industry), the impact of COVID-19 restrictions, and rising prices for vacations in the country, especially at beach resorts, have increased demand from Russians for travel to their regions of residence. The object of empirical research is the Vologda Region, a region of Northwestern Russia with significant tourism potential. Currently, there is no information about tourist flows within the region. In this regard, there is an increased need to analyze the potential tourist demand for domestic tourism among residents of the region and its seasonal fluctuations, which determined the aim of this study. To achieve this goal, the following tasks were addressed: analysis of Russian and foreign approaches to assessing potential demand and its seasonality using search engines; development of methodological tools for determining potential demand for tourist resources in the region based on user search queries; analysis of the seasonal nature of the potential demand of the local population for tourist assets in the region. The main hypothesis of the scientific work is that, based on user search queries, it is possible to identify consumer preferences and assess the potential demand from the population for holidays in the region of residence in conditions of incompleteness of official statistics. The development of our own methodological approach to assessing potential tourist demand based on search query data reflects the scientific novelty of the study. The results obtained have practical significance, allowing us to identify the most popular tourist niches among residents, as well as time intervals characterized by high indicators of potential demand. Our findings can be used by the authorities in assessing the demand for tourist resources of the territory by local residents in order to promote the regional tourist offer on the market.