Analysis of statistical significance of the relationship between the number of terrorist crimes and other crime indicators in the subjects of the Russian Federation

Due to its social significance, the fight against terrorism has always received great attention, both from Federal law enforcement agencies and from the security services of facilities with mass stay of people and hazardous production facilities. Therefore, terrorist crimes are rare random events, each of which is formed under the influence of its own set of factors. This requires the development of approaches to assessing the likelihood of terrorism. Tasks related to the prediction of terrorist manifestations arise in assessing the risks of terrorist attacks and the effectiveness of security systems of potentially dangerous objects. In reporting documents of power structures of subjects of the Russian Federation it was repeatedly noted that crimes of the terrorist orientation have the base in the criminal environment. Therefore, on the basis of reporting data of heads of managements of the Ministry of internal Affairs on a number of subjects of the Russian Federation, the correlation analysis of existence of statistical communication of quantity of crimes of terrorist character with other indicators of crime is carried out. The analysis was conducted using standard procedures of tabular processor Microsoft Excel. The probabilistic and interval estimates of the linear correlation coefficient, confidential probability and the values of the standard error is obtained. The character of the statistical relationship has been determined using the Chaddock’s scale. As a result, the correlation between the number of crimes and the frequency of terrorist crimes has been statistically confirmed. The levels of statistical connection between the number of crimes of different types and the frequency of terrorist crimes in the territory of one subject of the Russian Federation in the appropriate time intervals were determined.