Analysis of Conditions for Achieving National Goals of Decent Standard of Living for Pensioners

This study analyses the conditions for attaining the socio-economic development parameters of the state pension system, as stipulated by statutory instruments. The relevance of this research is underpinned by the forthcoming 2026–2028 budgetary and planning period, which represents a decisive phase in finalising the reform of the fundamental principles governing the insurance-based pension system. These principles were originally established in 2002 and subsequently refined by the governmental «Strategy for the Long-Term Development of the Russian Federation's State Pension System until 2030» (Strategy-2030). The methodological framework is grounded in an actuarial analysis of the conditions for achieving national objectives for a decent standard of living for pensioners, coupled with an assessment of risks associated with fulfilling the state's long-term commitments to all pensioner categories. The actuarial-statistical analysis established that the contemporary state pension system, notwithstanding the execution of its social functions and the implementation of core Strategy-2030 measures—such as the eradication of poverty among all pensioner categories, the removal of funded components from the insurance pension, and the revision of pension entitlement criteria—is subject to the growing influence of external global factors. These factors present strategic risks to the attainment of national objectives for the welfare of older generations, as defined by Russian Presidential Decree No. 309 (2024). The study identified unresolved issues from prior stages of the insurance-based pension reform. It demonstrated that current developments have confronted the national pension system with novel challenges, stemming from objective shifts in the global and national landscape. These challenges extend beyond the remit of the pension system itself and necessitate regulation within the framework of macroeconomic and fiscal policy. Furthermore, the research substantiates that the advancement of digital technologies within the social security system constitutes a pivotal factor in enhancing the efficacy with which the state fulfils its pension obligations to citizens. The study also delineates the conditions requisite for achieving the national goals of a prosperous old age within the established timelines and pinpoints the specific impediments to enhancing the pension system's overall efficiency.