Analysis of dependence of oil prices and inflation in Russia

This article analyzes the dependence of inflation in Russia on world oil prices and a number of other important macroeconomic indicators in 2016-2019. The study puts forward four hypotheses about the relationship between inflation and certain factors, including the ruble against the US dollar, the Bank of Russia key rate, money supply and world prices for Brent crude oil. The research methodology is based on four methods: graphical analysis method, correlation analysis, regression analysis and cluster analysis. Based on the analysis, the author concludes that between world prices for Brent oil and inflation in Russia in 2016-2019. no statistically significant relationship was observed. This fact does not allow using the indicator of world oil prices as an indicator for predicting the future dynamics of the price level in Russia. More suitable for forecasting purposes is the indicator of the ruble against the dollar, since the hypothesis of the significance of the influence of this factor on inflation in Russia has been confirmed.