Human resources in Smolensk region: current state and prospects of development

The article is devoted to the statistical analysis and short-term forecast of the population of the Smolensk region and its age structure for the development of the main directions of socio-economic policy aimed at improving the resilience of the region. Statistical indicators and their analysis provide ample opportunities to identify specific characteristics of human potential. The use of statistical analysis methods allows us to extrapolate quantitative indicators to a number of other indicators, including the qualitative aspects of human resources. Analysis, evaluation and forecasting of quantitative characteristics of human potential is quite relevant for the regions of modern Russia. The article presents the forecast of natural population decline in the Smolensk region until 2022, based on the use of various mathematical models, the analysis of the population structure in the region.