Human potential of Smolensk and surrounding regions of the CFD: current status and development prospects

The article discusses the main important indicators that can characterize the demographic processes taking place in the Smolensk region and other areas of the Central Federal District. Bryansk, Tver and Kaluga regions, which are part of the Central Federal District, with which the Smolensk region borders, were selected as regions for comparison. All indicators were calculated for the time interval from 2015 to 2021. The rating indicators of the Russian regions of the indicated regions are considered and analyzed in dynamics, the regions that increase the score rating, which characterizes the quality of life of the population in 70 different indicators, are identified. For all adjacent regions, a comparative analysis of changes in the absolute and relative indicators of the natural movement of the population, as well as average indicators for the entire period under consideration, was carried out. According to the data of the natural movement of the population of the Smolensk region, regression models of various types were additionally built for the number of births and deaths, and their errors were found. A comparison was made of actual population indicators with predicted values, which were obtained on the basis of models built on earlier statistical data. The structure of the population of the Smolensk region is analyzed, its features and trends of change are noted.