Demographic potential of rural territories of the Northwestern federal district: transformation vectors

The article analyzes the main trends in demographic development of rural territories of the Northwestern Federal District in 1990-2013. It is found that most regions of the Northwestern Federal District are characterized by such negative changes of demographic potential, as reduction in the number of rural residents and their share in the total population, growth in mortality rate, decline in birth rate, depopulation and migration. The author describes the main methodological approaches to the typology of rural areas according to key demographic parameters: fertility and migration and key characteristics of the population’s health. On the basis of the ratio of natural and migration movement of the population we single out 5 groups of regions: regions with the unfavorable demographic situation (migration, natural and total loss of rural population), regions with migration gain, natural and general loss, regions with natural loss, migration gain and general increase, regions with natural increase, migration and general loss, regions with a favorable demographic situation (natural, migration and general increase). The typology of rural areas by population’s health uses the ratio of key health parameters (LLL and infant mortality rate), based on the method of maximum critical indicators. When grouping we identify 3 of the 4 possible types of rural areas: regions with favorable health indicators, the regions with LLL lower than the critical value and with infant mortality rates below the threshold, regions with unfavorable situation by parameters of the rural population’s health. We develop a matrix which allows us to estimate the ratio of quantity (natural and migration) and quality (health indicators) demographic potential parameters, which is essential for regional management. For subjects of the Northwestern Federal District, fell into the group with the most unfavorable indicators, we propose the state policy directions in accordance with the identified characteristics.