Demographic potential of Vologodsky municipal district: statistical and sociological aspects

The Vologda Oblast is characterized by uneven spatial development of municipalities, expressed in significant intermunicipal differences in almost all socio-economic areas, especially in terms of demographic and economic situation. Studies show that Vologodsky Municipal District has great prospects for development both within the Vologda agglomeration and the entire region as a whole. A significant role in this process is played by human resources, in particular demographic potential. The purpose of the article is to assess the demographic potential of Vologodsky Municipal District by analyzing the statistical and sociological data characterizing it. In the work, we have used four groups of indicators of demographic potential: population size and components of its change (population, fertility, mortality, migration), population structure (gender and age structure, age composition), health (life expectancy at birth) and demographic behavior (self-preservation, matrimonial, reproductive, migration). The analysis has revealed the resource possibilities of the municipality’s demographic potential: migration growth and low migration attitudes of its residents, a lower mortality rate compared to the regional average, greater involvement in self-preservation practices and a pronounced focus on positive motives for health care, the priority of official marriage for a family and child lifestyle. At the same time, serious challenges to the municipality’s demographic development are the natural population decline due to the low birth rate, the deformation of gender and age structure and demographic aging trend, the low reproductive attitudes of residents due to both economic and psychological factors, as well as the low life expectancy compared to the average in the region. We have formulated the directions of the state (municipal) policy that will help mitigate or remove the listed challenges. The results have a pronounced applied significance for municipal authorities in charge of socio-demographic and migration policy issues.