Population projection for Penza region in the context of pension reform

The study describes the aspects of the demographic crisis in Russia in general and in Penza region in particular. The population projection makes it possible to predict its indicators in future. The projection for Penza region until 2023 and 2028 is made by means of the cohort component method. The population size, the vital rate, and the population structure in Penza region are analyzed according to the age-sex pyramid in terms of both adoption and rejection of the draft reform law by the State Duma of the Russian Federation. Pension reform will be implemented stage-by-stage until 2034. The above-mentioned method allows one to predict the characteristics of the population in Penza region as of January 01, 2034, analyze its structure and reveal the dynamics of the dependency ratio based on two models before and after the pension reform. The vital rate by 2034 is analyzed. The research considers the ways to compensate for the losses of the workforce in the context of increasing depopulation. Robotization is one of such methods. It can increase unemployment for certain age groups of the population in Penza region at that point.