Demographic forecast with modeling of nonlinear dynamics of the employed and unemployed population number

The article deals with a non-linear model for the dynamics of the number of employed, unemployed and economically inactive population. The model gives a forecast of the total population of the region taking into account the socio-economic situation. The model is verified on base of the statistical data for the Far East of the Russian Federation for 2000-2017. According to the model forecast for the population dynamics in the Far East, a migration surge is possible until 2025. As well, the authors give an approximation of demographic dynamics in the Far East by means of the linear and exponential models. A comparative analysis of the obtained forecast variants with the forecasts of the Federal State Statistics Service has been carried out. It is shown that the obtained average model forecast is qualitatively different from the FSSS forecasting variants, but being located within their area.