The demographic measurement of Kazakhstan: retrospective and prospective

The acceleration of social and economic processes results in the search of methods that reflect the gist of a rapidly changing social context. Methods of registration and analysis of demographic data, fixing a multifaceted state of society, have remained the same all over the world for a long time. Due to it, demographic sources are largely consistent and relevant for the demographic analysis of the social context both for retrospective and comparative analyses. The aim of the paper is a comprehensive evaluation of the development of the demographic processes in Kazakhstan in the first 15 years of the 21st century. During this period, there was a steady increase in population due to natural and migration growth (increase in birthrate, successful «environment» of the age structure, and reduction of emigration). The ethnic structure of population has changed radically. The demographic impact of the «European» ethnic group, that had been determining the dynamics of the population of Kazakhstan for more than 100 years, has been reduced to a minimum at present. In almost all regions, the majority of the population is Kazakhs; their demographic behavior determines the current demographic trends. During the given period, the reduction of an external migration on the background of the growing importance of an interior one is taking place. All migrations in Kazakhstan are usually ethnically denoted (the Kazakhs determine immigration trends; the Russians determine the emigration ones). At the same time negative trends such as a gradual «aging» of the population, the gender imbalance in the age structure, the high mortality rate of the working population (especially male), and the infant mortality rate should be noted. Despite the improvement of the demographic situation in the republic, it is necessary to draw attention to important regional peculiarities of the process. In general, in 2000-2015 the demographic processes in the Republic of Kazakhstan have demonstrated positive dynamics on the background of a social and economic stabilization. The positive inertia will be able to determine the demographic processes for about 10 years and to ensure demographic security of the state. The quantitative methods of research, historical and comparative, typological, cluster analysis method for carrying out demographic regionalization, as well as regional approaches to the study of population, have been used in the paper.