Disproportions of Demographic Development of Russia at the Regional Level: Current Trends

The article is devoted to the study of spatial polarisation of demographic development of Russian regions in the period from 1994 to 2024. Based on the analysis of statistical data, including the results of All-Russian population censuses and current records of Rosstat, the key trends determining the differences in the demographic situation at the regional level are identified. The main attention is paid to population dynamics, migration processes, fertility and life expectancy indicators. The results of the study indicate a significant spatial differentiation of demographic processes. Large agglomerations, such as Moscow and St. Petersburg, demonstrate steady population growth due to migration inflow, while the regions of the Far East, Siberia and the North face steady depopulation caused by migration outflow and natural population decline. The analysis of the total fertility rate (TFR) showed that only two regions (the Chechen Republic and the Republic of Tyva) corresponded to the expanded type of population reproduction in 2024, while most regions of the central and western parts of the country are characterised by extremely low birth rates. Special attention is paid to life expectancy, which also demonstrates significant regional differentiation. The lowest values are recorded in the northern and eastern regions. The highest values are observed in the southern regions and large cities. Based on the analysis of natural and migration growth rates, four groups of regions were identified. In conclusion, the authors propose recommendations for demographic policy aimed at reducing spatial disproportions and ensuring sustainable demographic growth.