Economic Diversification of a Mono-Product Economy: Quantitative Assessment of Sectoral Potential and Development of Strategic Directions for Chad’s Development

This article presents the National Program for Economic Diversification of Chad (PNDET 2025–2034), an analytical and operational framework inspired by theories of structural transformation (Lewis, Hirschman, Prebisch-Singer, Rodrik, Hausmann). The program seeks to reduce oil dependence through the development of sectoral axes, the establishment of institutional instruments, and the definition of quantified growth trajectories. The methodology combines a qualitative multi-level SWOT analysis applied to six priority sectors (agriculture, livestock, mining, energy, ICT, human capital) with a quantitative modeling of value-added margins. Selected value chains (cotton, sesame, gum arabic, livestock, metals) were assessed by comparing FOB prices of raw and semi-processed products and by calculating the “missed gain,” adjusted through material-to-product conversion coefficients and realistic industrial yields. The results were aggregated and projected into temporal scenarios (2025–2034) in order to estimate their effects on GDP, employment, and foreign exchange earnings, as well as to design monitoring indicators (Human Capital Index, share of processed exports, non-oil employment).