Federal budget revenues in 2025-2027: risks and prospects

The article analyzes the actual and forecast information on federal budget revenues and key macroeconomic indicators, formed on the basis of statistical data from explanatory notes to draft federal budget laws for the relevant periods. The analysis of the actual data covers the period from 2021 to 2023, the forecast data for 2025-2026 are compared with preliminary estimates of indicators for 2024. Based on the collected data, an assessment of the validity of forecasts in the context of projected key macroeconomic indicators is given. The analysis of the structure of federal budget revenues has been carried out, the dynamics of the main components, including oil and gas and non-oil and gas revenues, has been assessed, and their projected contribution to further income dynamics has been determined. The assessment of changes in the income structure in recent years is based on actual data. The analysis is carried out and a list of possible risks and challenges that may lead to adverse deviations in budget revenues in the context of the effects of the coronavirus pandemic, sanctions and geopolitical challenges is provided. Based on the results of the study, it is concluded that the current economic trends are taken into account when forecasting the dynamics of budget revenues, and appropriate recommendations are given.