Long-term trends of economic growth in Russia

The study of long-term trends in the growth of Russia's gross domestic product seems relevant, as it allows us to clearly see the real dynamics of our country's share in the global economy, to trace the influence of the main factors of economic development on it in different periods of time. The purpose of this study is to analyze the long-term GDP growth rates of Russia and the world as a whole, to identify the factors that influenced the change in GDP growth rates in 1991-2021, to develop a scenario long-term forecast of the development of the Russian economy. Based on the results of the analysis, the paper concludes about the unstable dynamics of Russia's GDP growth rates, their slowdown in recent years. The author has developed three scenarios for the long-term dynamics of Russia's GDP until 2050: negative, inertial and innovative. The innovative scenario is recognized as a priority in terms of long-term goals of Russia's economic development. The results of the work can be used in the development of forecasts of socio-economic development of our country and the development of management decisions aimed at accelerating economic growth and stimulating Russia's transition to an innovative development trajectory.