Achievability of radiological equivalence associated with closed nuclear fuel cycle with fast reactors: impact of uncertainty factors in scenarios of Russian nuclear power development through to 2100. Part 2. Migration of radionuclides

The potential health risk of future generations of people from radioactive waste (RW) disposed in deep repository is estimated for three scenarios for the development of nuclear power in Russia. There is currently a zone of uncertainty when making decisions about future power generation technologies. For this zone of uncertainty, the following three scenarios are considered: 1) application of fast neutron reactors, FR, only; 2) application of thermal neutron reactors, TR; and 3) application of FR and TR in combination. Long-lived RW from FR is assessed to be ten times less toxic than RW from TR. After reprocessing of the wastes to extract 90% of uranium and plutonium for incineration and americium for transmutation in FR, the toxicity of RW is again reduced by 10 times. Committed effective doses and lifetime attributable risk (LAR) to the public are estimated with account of radionuclides migration from the deep storage to the surface. Due to the RW reprocessing the time to the achievement of radiation equivalence of RW stored in the repository and natural uranium ore is reduced to an acceptable time, at which the integrity of RW packages is guaranteed. From the standpoint of modern standards of radiological protection and minimization the potential carcinogenic effects of radiation exposure on the population, priority in the development of nuclear energy in Russia should be given to the first scenario of the development of nuclear power, in which FR are used as much as possible to generate electricity. This conclusion should be taken into consideration in adjusting the Strategic plan for the development of nuclear power in Russia.