“If there was no war”: modeling the demographic processes in Russian agrarian society in the 1930s - 1950s (on the Tambov region material)

The paper presents the results of the computer modeling of demographic processes in rural communities. Fractal model simulated interaction of a series of factors, which may be treated as the most significant for social systems in transformation. The paper contains the descriptions of several computer experiments demonstrating the analysis tools and interpretability of outcome data. The period under investigation is 1939-1959. The analysis of modeling outcomes allowed the author to create a spectrum of the demographic strategies in rural communities of the Tambov province - a typical agrarian region of the 20th century Russia. The task was to develop two model scenarios. The first scenario described demographic strategies that were the most attractive for peasant societies in war and post-war conditions. The second scenario proceeded from the fact that Great Patriotic War did not take place. In a hypothetical scenario, societies formed their strategies in prewar conditions. Comparison of two model scenarios led to some conclusions. The war affected the speed of the implementation of pre-war trends but did not eliminate these trends. The hypothetical non-war scenario showed the intention of societies to a significant migratory mobility. In a realistic scenario, the migratory intentions were denoted weaker. Nevertheless, peasant societies were substantially polarized - divided into migration donors and recipients. In both scenarios, birth and mortality regulation is no longer the only answer to environmental challenges. Many societies responded to external changes by regulating (stimulating or suppressing) migration processes.