Natural reproduction of the population of Russia during the coronavirus pandemic: risks and consequences (the case of the Republic of Tatarstan)

Introduction. The study is of relevance due to the decline in the population of the Russian Federation since 2018 and the aggravation of the demographic situation since 2020, during the COVID-19 pandemic. Based on the results of analyses of demographic indicators of natural population growth in the Russian Federation, in the Volga Federal District, and in the Republic of Tatarstan, the article identifies the factors affecting such indicators during the spread of coronavirus infection. Materials and Methods. The study analyzed operational data from the Federal State Statistics Service and the Unified Interdepartmental Information and Statistical System on the demographic indicators (birth rate, mortality, marriage rate, and divorce rate). The comparative, cross-sectional, correlation, and regression methods of analysis were employed, which made it possible to reveal significant factors affecting the demographic situation and identify the general trend of demographic processes during the COVID-19 pandemic. Results. On the basis of the official statistics, an analysis of the demographic situation in terms of natural reproduction of the population of Russia, exemplified by the case of the Republic of Tatarstan has been carried out; the main factors in natural population decline during the COVID-19 pandemic have been identified; the need for the introduction of new measures aimed at improving health and reducing the mortality rate and overcoming the demographic crisis in marriage and family relations has been substantiated. Discussion and Conclusion. Conclusions have been drawn about the possibility of increasing the negative impact of the coronavirus pandemic on the future demographic situation, which is a threat to the national security of Russia. The significance of the research materials consists in a comprehensive analysis of the demographic situation caused by the natural population change. The results of the study can be used by the authorities in the development and adjustment of regional and federal demographic and social policies.