Factor-dynamic analysis of the forest ecosystems and its predictive significant

Methodical construction with the working title «Empirical Simulation of the Regional Bioclimatic Trend by Local Ecosystems» is presented. The regional systems of local zonality are caused by refraction of the zonal-regional bioclimatic background on the side of local geomorphological and hydro-edaphic factors. Local empirical simulation of the thermo-arid bioclimatic trend predicted for different regions was made by factor ordination of the biogeocoenose series. Forest topo-ecosystems are distinctly differentiated by their diverse zonal affiliations. Such spatially ordered systems of local zonality are adequate to the vector of predicted climatic changes and consiquently able to simulate the main directions and scales of ecosystem reconstructions, thus creating an empirical basis of environmental forecast constructions. The gradient (ordination) analysis was used to establish the predicted changes in the two branches of small biological cycle, production and detritus, in broad-leaved, mixed, and light-coniferous forests of the High and Middle Volga Region.