Factor analysis of the dynamics of the ruble exchange rate

The work is devoted to the topical issue of the dependence of the dollar / ruble exchange rate on various external factors. Based on data from the World Bank, government statistics and databases of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation, the dependence of the USD / RUB exchange rate on the price of oil, foreign exchange reserves, the key rate of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation, the unemployment rate, the industrial production index, important internal political events and the level of inflation in Russia was investigated. Monthly data from January 2015 to August 2020 is examined. Using the methods of econometric analysis, a model is obtained that estimates the level of influence of the selected factors on the ruble exchange rate. The rationale for the choice of including each of the factors in the model is presented. The assessment of the accuracy and quality of this model as a whole is described, the degree of influence of each individual factor on the effective indicator is estimated.