Factor analysis of environmental impact on the change of tourist flows and the development of tourist infrastructure

Recent events related to the emergence of epidemics, the manifestation of political sanctions have shown that the standard forecasting models used by economists to obtain forecasts in the case of forecasting tourist flows are not adequate. The principles of factor analysis are based on the analysis of retrospective information, taking into account the long-term effects of the interaction of different factors. In the case of analyzing tourist flows, we observe the effect of a significant influence of factors of a political or social nature, and such a force as we have not observed before. This means that it is impossible to get a basis for the organization of predictive trajectories of model parameters at future points in time. In such a situation, we must describe those aspects of the factor analysis toolkit that will be best suited for solving our problems. It should also be borne in mind that the external conditions in which the development of any new scenario takes place are also very volatile. Indeed, there are significantly more factors that form new bifurcation points of the system. Obviously, the main factor is the development of the epidemiological situation with Covid-19. The development of morbidity can simply cancel the implementation of projects without the possibility of cost recovery. Consequently, forecasting methods should provide for the transition of the system to a non-evolutionary state, forecasting in which is a violation of logic.