The formation of air temperature anomalies in the Vilkitsky Strait area during the cold season due to the current warming of the Arctic

The problem of climate change in the Arctic, particularly along the Northern Sea Route, has been actively studied in recent decades. One of the key areas determining navigation conditions along the Northern Sea Route is the Vilkitsky Strait. The temperature regime in this area plays an important role in the formation of ice conditions. The purpose of the study is to analyze changes in air temperature in the Vilkitsky Strait area during the cold period from 1990 to 2024, identify trends in temperature anomalies and their relationship to atmospheric circulation features, and determine the types of atmospheric circulation that affect the temperature regime in the Vilkitsky Strait area. The data from the United Hydrometeorological Observatory named after E. Fedorov (Cape Chelyuskin) weather station and the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data were used for the analysis. In the course of the work, some patterns in the air temperature regime were revealed. In November, December and February, there is a steady upward trend in average monthly air temperatures. In October and January, temperatures increased until 2020, but after 2020, there is negative trend. In March, air temperature is characterized by fluctuations about long-term norm, which is probably due to seasonal changes in atmospheric circulation. An analysis of the relationship between temperature anomalies showed that the temperature values in October have a significant impact on the temperature regime of the following months of the cold period. The higher the October temperature anomalies are in absolute magnitude, the more likely they are to persist during the winter months. Five types of distribution of air temperature anomalies are identified. The types differ in the nature of temperature changes and atmospheric circulation in the middle troposphere and at sea level.