Formation of research projects considering their commercial value and the probability of demand

he analysis of approaches to the assessment of commercial value and procedures for the selection of applied research in the plan of universities in Russia and abroad showed that the criteria systems and approaches to the selection of research projects are different. In this paper, the goal was set and implemented to create a minimum evaluation system that allows identifying commercial priorities of research and development; a reliable model for forming a set of research works for inclusion in the next year’s plan, considering limited funding. The authors proposed a probabilistic assessment of the income from the implementation of the results of applied research based on a preliminary expert assessment, formed a mathematical model of the selection of research for inclusion in the next year’s plan according to the criterion of maximizing the probability of their commercialization, and provided an algorithm for finding a rational solution to the task. A numerical example shows the mechanism of forming a research plan using the developed approach.