Global transformation and socio-economic development of the national economy: typology of trajectories of the real sector and internal reproduction

This article examines the impact of global transformation on the typology of real sector trajectories and internal reproduction processes in the national economy. The study’s initial premise is a systemic reproduction approach, which views the national economy as a set of interconnected blocks, one of which constitutes the real sector and internal reproduction. The article aims to identify and provide a meaningful description of the main types of real sector development trajectories under the influence of global shifts in world trade, the financial system, and the technological paradigm. The empirical basis is provided by panel series of macroeconomic indicators characterizing output, the structure of added value, investment activity, and domestic demand. Based on a set of indicators, integrated indicators of internal reproduction sufficiency and resilience to external shocks are formed. A typology of trajectories is proposed, including resource-export, industrial-innovative, import-dependent, and diversified models. For each model, characteristic combinations of factors influencing the socio-economic development of the national economy, as well as vulnerabilities and potential sources of increased economic autonomy, are revealed. The sustainability of socioeconomic development in the context of global transformation is determined not so much by the absolute scale of the real sector as by the configuration of internal reproduction links and the ability of the national economy to redistribute the effects of external shocks into internal growth. Conclusions are formulated regarding the methodological advantages of a systemic reproduction approach in analyzing long-term development trajectories.