Tools for predictive calculations of indicators of the intensity of migration processes in Russia

The factors identified by the author, which significantly affect the intensity of migration processes in Russia, allowed to form equations of multiple regression. These equations can be used in forecasting and planning work in this area of Economics. The article describes the process of developing these regression equations. 9 equations were selected that determine the coefficients of migration intensity on arrival, departure, and the coefficients of migration turnover intensity. These migration indicators cover all migration flows, migration flows within Russia, interregional movements in Russia. In addition, the multiple regression equation is proposed for the "share of migrants coming from other regions of Russia." Eight more regression equations are proposed as an additional tool for forecast calculations. They cover the coefficients of migration intensity on arrival, departure, and migration turnover intensity for movements within Russian regions and for international flows. This group of regression equations includes the migration indicators "the share of migrants who arrived within the Russian region" and "the share of migrants who left within the Russian region". The source of the information was Rosstat's statistics on all administrative and territorial units of the Russian Federation for 2018. Many of the indicators studied were calculated by the author to ensure their comparability. The total array of studied indicators was 54636.