Tools of the intellectual system of integrative management of innovative projects

This article considers the main tools and methodological approaches to the construction of an intelligent system of integrative management of innovation projects. Particular attention is paid to the methods of forecasting the effectiveness of the implementation of innovation projects focused on the development and implementation of high-tech products using artificial intelligence. Key forecasting techniques are analyzed, including extrapolation methods, mathematical modeling and expert evaluations. Under conditions of high uncertainty and dynamically changing economic environment, the choice of the most appropriate forecasting method is an important aspect. The article considers the factors affecting the accuracy of forecasts, and proposes a forecasting model that takes into account different approaches to establishing the values of indicators of innovation project realization using artificial intelligence. The ways of evaluating the forecasting capabilities of various methods and criteria of their applicability in specific situations are described. A tool for assessing the variability of forecasted indicators of innovative projects realization is proposed, which allows to form a confidence interval and take into account possible deviations from the planned values. This is especially important when assessing the volume of investment and other economic parameters that determine the success of an innovation project. The proposed tools and methods are aimed at creating a reliable basis for making managerial decisions, minimizing risks and improving the accuracy of forecasting. This is especially relevant in the conditions of digital transformation of the economy, development of artificial intelligence and increased competition in high-tech industries.