Interpretation of quantitative real-time PCR-analysis results based on the probabilistic models

The present work develops our results obtained in recent studies [1–3] employing stochastic imitation modeling to analyze real-time PCR kinetics and DNA quantitative assay performance. In particular, PCR threshold cycle probability distribution depending on initial DNA copy number was estimated, reaction kinetics was studied, quantitative assay errors were analyzed. In the present paper, a number of topics related to the quantitative assay results interpretation is discussed: estimation of copy number ( n ) in the sample based on a series of quantitative assay results ( k i, i = 1, 2,…, m ) for a number of assay runs; obtaining estimates k i ; interpretation of negative or false-negative assay results in the case of multiple ( m ) runs with no copies found.