Using a composition of convective instability indices to predict the occurrence of polar mesocyclones in the Arctic region of Russia

The article presents a brief description of the developed technological line for the automatic prediction of the occurrence of polar mesocyclones in the Arctic region of Russia. Technological line includes a block of numerical simulation Polar WRF with the setting of initial and boundary conditions according to the GFS model, a block for calculating convective instability indices, a block for calculating the probability fields of polar mesocyclone nucleation using regional thresholds for selected indices, a visualization subsystem that allows to select an area with a given probability of detecting a perturbation. The paper gives a description of the proposed method for predicting polar mesocyclones, and justifies the use of a number of convective indices as prognostic predictors. For the convective indices used, regional threshold values were determined, the excess of which in a given direction in a limited area increases the probability of a polar mesocyclone occurring in this zone. The operation of the developed forecasting technological line is described. The results of prognostic calculations for a number of mesocyclones observed in 2022 are demonstrated. Estimates of the justification of the forecast based on the results of continuous operation of the technology in test mode from January to December 2022 are presented.