Using a composition of convective instability indices to predict the movement of polar mesocyclones in the Arctic region of Russia

The article is a continuation of the authors’ work on the forecast of polar mesocyclones (PMC) in the Arctic region of Russia. It discusses the issues of constructing a forecast of PMC movement using previously obtained results. The methodology for constructing prognostic trajectories is based on searching at successive moments in time for the centers of zones with a high probability of detecting PMCs and their subsequent comparison in time and space. At the moment, on the basis of RPA Typhoon, an automated technology for forecasting PMCs is operating in test mode, implementing calculations using the methodology for predicting the emergence (existence) of PMCs and using the methodology for forecasting their movement. In 2024, independent tests of the developed technology were conducted with the participation of the FSBI AARI. The article demonstrates the results of predictive calculations for a number of mesocyclones observed in 2024, and also provides estimates of the forecast accuracy based on the results of the tests.