Study of the economic efficiency of optimizing forecasts of spring flood inflow to the hydropower plant reservoir (on the example of the Iriklinskaya HPP)

Management of operational mode of large hydroelectric power plant's reservoir requires compliance with a number of conditions: making a profit through the generation of electricity; compliance with the conditions for the safe operation of hydraulic objects; compliance with the conditions for the environmentally sustainable existence of the reservoir. Due to the fact that the river regime is subject to geographic patterns, and the water content is not the same throughout the year, there is a need for the most complete and safe use of the volume of the high-water phase flow. For many rivers, most of the annual flow occurs during the spring flood period, while it is possible to generate the maximum amount of electricity and fill the reservoir to design levels. At the same time, the key condition for the optimal operation of hydroelectric power plants and reservoirs is the availability of advance forecasts of the inflow volume of acceptable accuracy. The paper substantiates calculation schemes for obtaining additional profit by maintaining water levels of the real reservoir under consideration at design levels; by minimizing the magnitude of idle discharges; reducing energy costs for operating pumps at state district power plants. Damage and profit functions have been developed as a calculation tool. It has been established that, subject to ideal forecasts (with zero error), income from electricity generation at the hydroelectric station in question will increase by 2 times compared to existing income.