Research of predictive schemes for management of the functioning of organizational and technical systems

Organizational and technical systems are the most common tool for solving national economic problems. However, due to the personnel included in them, they are characterized by stochastic behavior, which raises the issue of developing their probabilistic model. On the other hand, the probabilistic apparatus is a tool for forecasting future phenomena and situations and therefore a mechanism for its use in predictive (forecast) management is needed. For this purpose, the work uses the first probabilistic approximation in the form of a Markov process and its description by the Fokker-Planck-Kolmogorov equation. The purpose of the study is to formulate and solve optimal control problems with probabilistic control quality criteria for a tracking predictive control scheme, as well as to develop a mechanism for metasystem switching of models in the case of an adaptive scheme with a predictive model in the control loop.