Research of modern models of radiation risks from UNSCEAR, ICRP and who at their application for assessment of radiation risks in emergency exposure situations

According to the current Russian OSPORB, the indicator of radiation risk is one of key indicators of radiation safety establishments, where radioactive substances and other sources of ionizing radiation are used. The IAEA BSS and Russian NRB-99/2009 require that individual radiation risks for emergency workers should be estimated. However, neither the Russian nor international normative documents contain recommendations what radiation risk assessment models should be used for these purposes. This article presents comparative analysis of applicability of current models of radiation risks intensity recommended by UNSCEAR, ICRP and WHO to predict risk values in case of radiation emergency situations. Radiation risks should be estimated on the basis of the general principle of conservativity, with account of the following statements. To predict risks in case of radiation emergency exposure to doses above 50 mSv, unmodified models of radiation risks intensity developed by UNSCEAR, ICRP and WHO with the use of radiation epidemiological data following single acute radiation exposure should be used. Comparative analysis of current radiation risks models demonstrates that for people who do not attain the age of 85 years the most conservative predictive estimates can be obtained with the use of the DDREF-free ICRP models or with the use of WHO models, both options give practically the same forecast. In men with attained age younger than 49 years the most conservative predicted risk of leukaemia is obtained with ICRP models. For men older than 49 years - with UNSCEAR and WHO models.