Impact of uncertainty of dose values after single radiation exposure on prognosis of radiation risks of solid cancers in the Russian population calculated with ICRP models

Impact of statistical dispersion of radiation dose values, as well as dose and dose rate effectiveness factor (DDREF) on prognosis of radiation risks calculated with ICRP models for Russian population after single exposure to radiation is discussed in the article. Mean values of predicted radiation risks are shown to be biased if sources of the dispersion are taken into account. The main source of uncertainty is DDREF. Calculation of different sources of statistical dispersion including DDREF with its mean value 2.0, may result in 6-fold reduction of mean value of predicted risk of solid cancers. Such effect may be caused by inappropriate adjustment of ICRP risk models to Russian population.