Investigation of the possibility of using linear regression for predicting memory consumption in a highload information system

The article considers the actual problem of planning tasks in highloaded information systems at the moment. The purpose of this paper is to test the hypothesis that the congestion of high-performance information systems depends on the external parameters of the environment in which they operate. For verification, the system on which the corporate website of the company, the monitoring system and the application for the social network vk.com were collected and launched. As external parameters were chosen as natural phenomena, as well as statistical data of visiting popular sites, as well as exchange rates and shares. In our opinion, these parameters may to some extent influence the workload of the information system. The data was collected during the month of the system operation every ten minutes. At each collection of information for each running process in the system, the amount of memory it consumes is remembered. To identify the model, the linear regression method was chosen, as the most simple and often used option for verifying implicit dependencies between data. All the collected parameters were filtered out - checked for cross-matching and normalized. Using the constructed model, we predicted the value of memory consumed by processes. For each predicted value, the root-mean-square deviation was calculated. Analysis of the results showed that the model constructed has a number of problems. As recommendations for improving the results, the use of another method to build a model is indicated, as well as improvement of the quality and quantity of data collected. Further plans include exploring the possibility of predicting the CPU time of a highload information system using external parameters.