Research of the level of crime in the Russian Federation by methods of mathematical modeling

This article addresses the problem of crime in the RF. Some factors that may affect the number of crimes are selected. Using the obtained data, factor and factorless models were constructed. The forecasts were made using these mathematical models for 3 years. Selected 2 unmanaged and 2 controlled factors. Changing the selected factors received forecasts. The worst combination of changes of uncontrollable factors, at which the crime rate increases, is determined. Based on the data obtained, we chose the methods of optimal deterrence of the crime rate in the RF.