Variability of duck population in the delta of Selenga river, depending from water table of lake Baikal: modeling and projection to nature cycles

An analyze for changes of nest density and spatial distribution of ducks in dependence from variable hydrological regime and configuration of dry land in the Selenga river delta at Lake Baikal in 1990-1996 was done. Relatively good accordance of nest density and flooding degree in the delta was found, which lets to presume a relative stability of duck community in times of little varied spring water table. High water tables as well as low ones are forming cyclical variations of duck numbers and probably increase immigration and emigration of the birds. A possibility to forecast of several parameters of ducks' distribution in the delta after measurements of shoreline length is presumed.