Econometric analysis of depopulation in Russia

The problem of population reproduction in our country arose several decades ago. Back in the 90s of the last centuries the collapse of the economy caused a sharp increase in unemployment and a decline in the standard of living of the population. The unstable political situation, lack of jobs and goods led to the collapse of the family institution, which in turn affected the birth rate. Despite the economic conditions that have changed since then and the measures taken by the state to provide social and material support for families with children, the goal of preserving and increasing human capital in modern Russia is topical. Presented work is dedicated to the analysis of annual demographic indicators for the period from 1989 to 2018 based on time series models. The stationarity properties of the proposed model were studied using the Dickey-Fuller test for the presence of a single root, autocorrelation and homoscedasticity of random residues were tested using the Darbin-Watson, Broish-Godfrey, and Goldfeld-Quandt tests. Based on the conducted statistical tests a mixed autoregression and moving average order model p and q respectively ARMA(p, q) is proposed as the most accurate among the considered models of stationary time series which allows us to describe in detail the depopulation process for the coming years.