The economic essence and specifics of forecasting business processes in agriculture

The article reveals the economic essence of forecasting business processes in the agro-industrial complex (AIC) as a scientific justification of the future state of economic activity to enhance efficiency, sustainability, and competitiveness of agricultural enterprises. In conditions of high uncertainty due to natural factors, market conditions, and technological changes, forecasting serves as a key management tool. The authors analyze five main aspects: forecasting as a management function, including its connection to the management cycle, objectives, objects, and methods (economic-mathematical models, expert assessments, digital technologies); orientation towards effectiveness and efficiency, ensuring the achievement of goals with minimal resource costs; integration of internal (resources, personnel, finances) and external factors (weather, market, regulation); formation of strategic (long-term directions) and tactical guidelines (short-term tasks); ensuring sustainable development, harmonizing economic, ecological, and social goals. Forecasting reduces risks, optimizes resources, promotes innovations, and facilitates adaptation to changes. The study emphasizes the role of digital technologies, such as Big Data and agro-IoT, in making informed decisions. The results show that effective forecasting ensures the long-term growth of AIC enterprises, minimizing threats and maximizing opportunities in a volatile environment.