Economic and mathematical load modeling of the specially protected natural areas according to land remote sensing data

The status of specially protected natural areas implies, on the one hand, their recreational purpose, and on the other hand, the prevention of adverse man-induced impacts that, in particular, may be a consequence of recreational activities within the protected areas. Justification of the fee for visiting such areas is both an environmental economic and a social task. An economic and mathematical model is proposed to describe the change in the number of visitors to the protected areas and the value of damage from man-induced impacts. Land remote sensing data are used to identify the properties of the model. The computational experiment results show that the number of visitors to the protected areas recovers over time while the amount of accumulated damage decreases if the fees increase and money is spent on compensation and prevention of damage from man-induced impacts. However, the composition of vacationers may change due to reduced availability of tourist and recreational services for weaker segments of the population. Nowadays, the model proposed can be used to substantiate the development scenarios for tourist and recreational activities in specially protected natural areas. To make precise forecasts, it is necessary to involve land remote sensing data covering a longer period (up to 10 years) as well as data from social networks and land-related forums.