Import substitution strategies in a global context: a comparative analysis of models and prospects for structural transformation of the Russian economy under sanctions

The article examines import substitution strategies as an economic policy tool aimed at reducing import dependence and stimulating domestic production. Based on a comparative analysis of three models - domestically oriented (Latin America, 1950-1960s), foreign-oriented (Asian NIS) and mixed (India, Egypt) - their advantages and risks are identified. In the context of Russia, the role of sanctions pressure in activating import substitution is emphasized, especially in agriculture and mechanical engineering. Negative effects are critically assessed: reduced competition, rising prices, technological backwardness. The need for a transition from protectionism to an export-oriented model synthesizing the localization of critical industries with integration into global value chains is proven.