Empirical simulation of the primary productivity and carbon accumulation in forest ecosystems under different climate change scenarios

This article gives an account of the experience of studying the functional response of forest ecosystems in one of the ecoregions of the Middle Povolzhye to inter-year fluctuations of meteorological conditions, which may to a certain extent simulate multi-year (intra-century and century) climatic changes. The procedure of empirical simulation using generalized thermo-hydro-edaphic and production parameters of local ecosystems has been developed. The two alternative climatic signals (thermo-arid and humid) have been considered. The humid signal was shown to more effectively and diversely influence the functional state of forest ecosystems compared to the thermo-arid signal. Accordingly, in the former case there is a more marked and rather contrast spatial pattern of changes in carbon accumulation in the forest phytobiota.