Epizootic situation and modeling of potential nosoareals of peste des petits ruminants, sheep and goat pox and rift valley fever up to 2030

The current global epizootic situation is characterized by a pronounced increase in the tension for a number of special danger viral infections of livestock including sheep and goat diseases. The above diseases include peste des petits ruminants (PPR), sheep and goat pox (SGP) and Rift Valley fever (RVF), the probability of their entering the Russian Federation being rather high. In this report we have pioneered determination of PPR, SGP and/or RVF potential nosoareas varying in the above infections emergence danger levels, both in the Russian Federation and the neighboring countries, based on the monitoring of the global epizootic situation using mathematical extrapolation of regressive models. Also, the natural ecological factor was shown to have the most serious impact on the intensity of an epizootic process. Our work was aimed at evaluation of the spatial-dynamic features and regularities of the global spreading of peste des petits ruminants, sheep & goat pox, and Rift Valley fever, as well as evaluation of the risks of these infections emerging and spread in the Russian Federation and the neighboring countries in the period of 2020 to 2030. We used the statistical data of Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) and Office International des Epizooties (OIE) reflecting the global epizootic situation for PPR, SGP and RVF in 1984 to 2018, the data on the economic status of sheep and goat husbandry worldwide, and also some information on a range of special danger animal infections from the Federal Service for Veterinary and Phytosanitary Surveillance, and The Veterinary Center of Russia. The epizootological method of the research applied here included calculation of indices of the intensity of an epizootic situation, namely the stationarity index and the incidence index. Statistical verification of a relation of the epizootic situation intensity with some natural and socio-economic factors was performed, and the informational impact indicator (III) was calculated. To model and predict the dynamics and the structures of PPR, SGP and/or RVF nosoareas, the calculation of regression & information models was used. The probability of a disease emergence was calculated through spatially dynamic modeling of its incidence in the nosoarea-involved countries in 1984-2018, taking into account the factors of the natural and/or socio-economic background on the stationary index values within the global nosoarea. According to the summarized data, the largest numbers of PPR- or RVF-affected countries were registered in the African continent in 1984 to 2018. A few more countries affected with SGP were found in Asia. Nevertheless, the numbers of PPR (more than 38 thousand) and SGP (more than 39 thousand) outbreaks recorded in Asia significantly exceeded the respective values as observed in African countries. The autocorrelation analyses revealed 13- to 15-year cyclicity for PPR, 12- to 13-year or 21- to 22-year one for SGP, and 25- to 27-year or 8- to 10-year for RVF infections. In Russia, as many as three potential nozoreas for PPR and/or SGP and two potential nozoareas for RVF were identified which varied in the quantitative indicators of incidence. Also, natural environment and climatic factors were found to have the greatest influence on the intensity of an epizootic situation. In the period up to 2030, the emergence and spread of SGP and/or PPR is possible throughout the territory of the Russian Federation, the highest probability being predicted in the North Caucasus Federal District (the Republic of Dagestan, the Republic of Ingushetia, Kabardino-Balkaria, the Republic of North Ossetia, Chechnya or Stavropol Territory) and the South Federal District (Krasnodar Territory, the Republic of Adygeya, and the Republic of Crimea). Furthermore, there is a low likelihood of RVF introduction and emergence in the above regions. Among the neighboring countries, Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan, Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Afghanistan, Turkmenistan, Armenia, Georgia, Azerbaijan, Turkey, Iran, Mongolia and China pose the greatest danger for PPR and/or SGP while countries of the African continent, Arabian Peninsula, and the southern region of Asia for RVF. The data obtained indicate the requirement for carrying out a comprehensive monitoring of the epizootic situation for PPR, SGP and RVF worldwide combined with the development of forecasts for these infections and the implementation of a set of preventive antiepizootic measures to ensure sanitary and epizootic welfare of animal husbandry in the Russian Federation.