South of Russia: social and economic line of macroregion (2000-2020s)

The article examines the main directions of social and economic dynamics of the southern macroregion of Russia at the beginning of the 21st century. The development of these territories in the 2000-2010 was determined by a complex correlation of the influence of the federal center, managerial practices of regional authorities, activities of local, Russian and international businesses, demographic and socioeconomic processes of various scales (metropolization, interregional migration, depopulation, the flow of the working population into the service sector). Generally, in the last 20-25 years, the southern Russian regional economies demonstrated the stability of their sectoral structure and several main specializations. This allowed the South of Russia to remain as the leading granary of Russia, the epicenter of its tourist and recreational complex, the most important transport and logistics center in the international trade system. In 2000-2010, the development of the near-Caspian hydrocarbon resources became noticeably more active. The dynamic growth of the economy and social sphere of the South of Russia was largely ensured by the active development of the Azov-Black Sea zone, which concentrated a significant share of the human and economic potential of the macroregion. A new period in the social and economic dynamics of the South of Russia begins in the spring of 2022. The stable positions of the macroregion in the Russian agroindustry, the recreational sector and the system of transport communications give us reasons to believe that these economic niches will remain central ones for the South of Russia for the entire foreseeable future. But the scale of ongoing and upcoming changes makes inevitable a fairly significant correction in the southern Russian economic specializations of the second order, the current composition of which will respond to the international and all-Russian market conditions. It is currently not possible to predict the directions and timing of these shifts, since they will depend on the resulting set of factors of different scales that represent variables.